Our experience and accumulated knowledge provides us opportunity to perform any kind of industrial risk assessment in accordance with requirements of national supervisory authorities, legislation or company’s internal regulations, in compliance with internationally accepted risk assessment principles and methods.
Risk assessment is a significant first step in every risk management process and one of the key elements in developing company’s risk strategy. Industrial risk assessment is performed, when:
- starting and expanding business activities which may lead to industrial risk;
- identifying existing operational risks;
- planning measures to reduce risk and increase security level of the object;
- planning to develop territory;
- developing emergency action plan;
- demonstrating attitude towards safe operation of the company to the public, partners, customers, national supervisory authorities, and other interested parties.
Industrial risk assessment must be carried out in cases of high-risk objects, the operation of which is regulated by the Seveso III directive and Regulations of Cabinet of Ministers No. 131 "Industrial Accident Risk Assessment Procedures and Risk Reduction Measures".
Industrial risk includes two components:
- likelihood of the event (emergency);
- possible consequences of the occurrence of such an event.
In industrial risk assessment both components are assessed by analysis of both, the development of events prior the occurrence of the undesired event and prevalence of effect, caused by consequences. Only common assessment of both components characterizes risks caused by the equipment, operation, process or the whole object.
Determination of probability of accident
In risk assessment we use different risk assessment methods, depending on the complexity of the task and the required accuracy of the result. Risk assessment methods are divided into qualitative and quantitative.
Qualitative risk assessment methods are based on expertise and assumptions, which allows to assess the risk situation relatively quickly and principally.
Quantitative risk assessment methods are based on accumulated statistical data, which requires additional time and knowledge devoted to data processing and analysis, but provides more accurate result.
In risk assessment we use internationally recognized risk assessment methods:
- Quantitative risk assessment method in compliance with the Dutch risk assessment recommendations (“Guidelines for quantitative risk assessment”, “Purple Book” CPR 18E);
- Fault tree analysis;
- Event tree analysis;
- Risk matrix etc.
In order to determine the prevalence of consequences, different computer modelling tools are developed in the world, which are used to determine, how the emergency consequences affect people and environment, as well as to assess interaction of hazardous objects through “domino effect”.
When modelling the prevalence of consequences, our industrial risk experts use such computer programs as Riskcurves, Effects, Breeze Haz, ALOHA and other CFD computer modelling tools.
Individual and social risk assessment
ELLE uses software Effects and Riskcurves, developed by Netherlands Organisation for Applied Scientific Research (TNO), which are used in carrying out individual and social risk assessment.
Individual and social risk assessment of dangerous objects is widely used in other countries, both, in Europe and outside, and the results are the most appropriate for characterization of risk object’s overall risk level as well as for spatial planning.
The individual risk assessment provides analysis of the overall probability of all potential emergency scenarios to cause death in certain place against the dangerous object.
In social risk assessment we consider the overall risk caused by the analysed risk object, but contrary to individual risk assessment it includes also determination of the number of people being present in the risk area. Thus social risk characterizes the probability of death of certain number of people in case of industrial accident.
Identification of individual and social risk is a component of the quantitative risk assessments, which are developed in compliance with the principles and output data of Dutch guidelines of quantitative risk assessment (“Guidelines for quantitative risk assessment”, “Purple Book” CPR 18E).
Software Effects and Riskcurves have been developed on the basis of principles embodied in the Dutch guidelines for quantitative risk assessment and fully ensure, that risk assessment is developed pursuant to these guidelines.
To be proficient users of the mentioned computer modelling tools, our experts have gained necessary knowledge at the developers of computer programs in Netherlands. More than 15 years of expertise in the industrial risk field and knowledge in carrying out quantitative risk assessments in accordance with the guidelines provide high quality risk assessments meeting current requirements.
Jānis Prindulis, Project Manager